Projections and Predictions: Knocking at the College Door

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About the Episode: 

In this episode of The Edu Data Podcast, Timothy and Jamie dive deep into the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education's (WICHE) latest report, Knocking at the College Door. They explore key findings on the projected decline of high school graduates across the U.S. from 2023 to 2041, take a closer look at the meticulous methodology behind WICHE's projections, and discuss implications of those projections.

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Key Takeaways

• Declining High School Graduates by Region
  • Nationally, high school graduate numbers are projected to decline, with the West (-20%), Midwest (-16%), and Northeast (-17%) facing steep drops by 2041.
  • Only the South shows growth (+3%), buoyed by states like Texas, Florida, and North Carolina.
• Shifting Demographics
  • Significant declines in white high school graduates (-26%) contrast with surging multiracial (+68%) and Hispanic (+16%) populations.
  • Multiracial students are projected to peak in 2034, indicating a continued diversification of the student body.
• Comprehensive Methodology and Insights
  • WICHE’s projections are backed by a robust methodology incorporating birth rates, enrollment trends, and historical data.
  • They’ve accounted for anomalies like the COVID-19 pandemic, ensuring reliability and transparency in their findings.

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Episode Summary

The Enrollment Cliff is a Steep Hill

The hosts delve into the much-discussed “enrollment cliff,” emphasizing how it’s not just a one-time drop-off but a prolonged decline in high school graduates. While the South sees modest growth, the rest of the U.S. faces sharp declines. States like Hawaii (-33%), California (-29%), and New York (-27%) are bracing for significant impacts. The discussion highlights how institutions in these regions must innovate to sustain enrollment.

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Changing Demographics: A New College Campus Landscape

Jamie and Timothy explore the demographic shifts revealed in the study. White student populations are set to decline significantly, while multiracial and Hispanic populations grow. This diversification presents opportunities and challenges for institutions, particularly in addressing equity, access, and cultural representation. The multiracial student population’s 100% growth by 2034 underscores the need for inclusive policies and practices in higher education.

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Behind the Data: Methodology That Builds Trust

The hosts nerd out over WICHE’s technical appendix, praising the transparency and rigor of the report’s methodology. WICHE employs a five-year weighted cohort survival ratio (CSR) to project graduation rates, blending data from the National Center for Education Statistics and the CDC. They also address anomalies like the COVID-19 pandemic and past changes in race data reporting, ensuring accuracy and reliability in their projections.

Timothy and Jamie also applaud the inclusion of historical comparisons, which showcase the model’s accuracy over decades. By revealing how past projections stacked up against actual outcomes, WICHE builds trust in its predictions for the future.

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Interactive Tools for Actionable Insights

The episode wraps up by highlighting the interactive dashboards available on WICHE’s website. These tools allow users to filter data by state, demographic, and timeframe, making it easy for institutions to tailor insights to their specific needs. Whether you’re preparing for 2025’s peak or strategizing for 2041, this resource is indispensable for long-term planning.

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Final Thoughts

The Knocking at the College Door report offers a critical roadmap for higher education leaders navigating a future shaped by declining graduates and shifting demographics. As Timothy and Jamie emphasize, understanding and leveraging this data is essential for institutions aiming to thrive in an increasingly competitive and diverse landscape.

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Connect With Our Co-Hosts:

Jamie Boggs

Timothy Davis

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About The Enrollify Podcast Network: The EduData Podcast is a part of the Enrollify Podcast Network. If you like this podcast, chances are you’ll like other Enrollify shows too!  

Some of our favorites include Generation AI and The Higher Ed Geek.

Enrollify is produced by Element451 — the next-generation AI student engagement platform helping institutions create meaningful and personalized interactions with students. Learn more at element451.com.

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